Week 6 · learning day 5
Forecast metrics and model comparison
Concept Development and Testing · 60–90 minutes
Today’s outcomes
- Explain forecast metrics and model comparison in the context of concept development and testing.
- Decide a product decision using the source outcome rather than intuition alone.
- Produce a reusable section of a concept-test brief.
Source trace
W06-O05Estimate the market potential and forecast sales.
Core lesson
Make the choice inspectable
Forecast metrics and model comparison matters when it changes a real allocation of attention, money, time, or delivery capacity. Test the promise before investing in the complete delivery system.
Start by naming the decision and the uncertainty around it. Separate evidence from assumptions, compare at least one alternative, and state what would make you revise the choice.
The source outcome for today is: Estimate the market potential and forecast sales.
What decision will forecast metrics and model comparison improve, what evidence is sufficient for that decision, and what is the cost of being wrong?
Worked example
Forecast metrics and model comparison in practice
For a marketplace for verified repair professionals, the product manager must decide a choice about forecast metrics and model comparison. The team records the target user and outcome, the evidence currently available, the strongest alternative, and the next reversible test. The recommendation is written as a choice with a reason—not as a list of features.
Do the work · 20 minutes
Turn the idea into a decision
- Choose a product you know and write the specific decision that forecast metrics and model comparison should support.
- List two pieces of evidence, two assumptions, and one credible alternative.
- Make a recommendation in three sentences and add one condition that would change it.
Save to your portfolio
A concept-test brief — section: Forecast metrics and model comparison
Knowledge check
Answer before opening
What is the decision at the centre of forecast metrics and model comparison?
A good answer names an accountable choice, not merely an activity or output.
How should evidence and assumptions be separated?
Label observed facts, interpretations, and untested beliefs explicitly so the next learning step is visible.
What makes the recommendation revisable?
It includes a trigger, threshold, or new evidence that would justify changing course.
What should the portfolio artefact communicate?
The context, considered alternatives, chosen direction, rationale, evidence, and remaining risk.
Spaced review
Reconnect the learning
Reflection